December 4, 2021

GPU Availability and Pricing Replace: November 2021

It’s time to check out the present state of the GPU market in our month-to-month replace function. In what shouldn’t be a shock to anybody, graphics playing cards are nonetheless overly costly and everybody concerned remains to be making a ton of money. To quote one instance, Nvidia simply introduced their quarterly earnings which included an enormous soar in year-on-year income for his or her gaming enterprise. So if you happen to’re a GPU producer, you might be delighted with the present state of affairs, and if you happen to’re a GPU purchaser you’ll be crying your self to sleep.

On this version of the GPU pricing replace, we’re not going to spend as a lot time speaking concerning the present retail market as a result of not a lot has modified over the previous couple of months. Pricing of graphics playing cards on retailer cabinets stays excessive, availability is fairly good in most areas, it’s simply that the precise costs of these GPUs are inflated on account of a wide range of market pressures we’ve been speaking about for months now — and all of it’s unlikely to alter all through the busy vacation purchasing interval.

In reality, we’ve been instructed by a few retailers that GPU gross sales proper now aren’t notably nice as curiosity in playing cards at present costs is low, however they will’t cut back costs on account of insidious ways from suppliers like bundling and easy worth inflation. So there seems to be a little bit of a stalemate on that entrance.

What we do need to cowl is the larger query on everybody’s thoughts for the previous yr: Will GPU pricing ever go down? When will it go down? And, are there any upcoming options to the issue within the works?

Upcoming Releases, a Attainable Answer?

One specific story that’s been doing the rounds lately is that of an Nvidia RTX 2060 refresh with 12GB of VRAM. This launch has been effervescent away for a while now, with experiences going again months, however plainly issues are gearing as much as produce an RTX 2060 refresh someday in January. Gigabyte fashions are beginning to seem on the ECC, for instance. Some are calling this a GPU aimed to fight miners and ease inventory woes, however is that this actually going to be the case?

From a manufacturing standpoint, it must be cheaper to construct an RTX 2060 than Nvidia’s different GPUs. It makes use of a previous-gen Turing GPU, which is constructed utilizing TSMC’s older and cheaper 12nm node, which is in barely much less demand than their vanguard nodes. Nevertheless, the RTX 2060 nonetheless makes use of GDDR6 reminiscence, the identical reminiscence used on present GPUs together with the RTX 3060, and the identical quantity because the 3060 at 12GB. So if there are any provide constraints on GDDR6 reminiscence, or pricing on that reminiscence remains to be excessive, the RTX 2060 will not essentially change into an actual answer to the GPU availability disaster.

Nevertheless, as a result of it’s constructed on a mature node, it’s attainable that whole provide for Nvidia GPUs will enhance, offered they’ve purchased further capability at TSMC, and we’ve got no proof to know whether or not they have or not. If provide is absolutely maxed out on Samsung’s 8nm node with no room to purchase further capability, and if provide of GPU dies is the important thing limitation for added GPU manufacturing, then it’s attainable this launch will enhance provide.

However that is numerous “ifs” and we’re not satisfied that merely reverting to an older design on a extra mature node will considerably enhance the availability of GPUs. All through final yr we heard of many worth hikes and availability points for all kinds of elements utilized in placing collectively a graphics card, all the pieces from reminiscence and floor elements, to the PCBs themselves — fixing foundry capability is just not the one limiting issue.

The opposite huge angle is, after all, mining. The idea is that the RTX 2060 is a much less engaging card for miners in comparison with many others. Nevertheless, that’s not at present the case going by Whattomine’s numbers. The RTX 2060 is extra worthwhile proper now than the RTX 3060, however that’s from mining smaller cash. It’s true the RTX 2060 is a much less engaging choice than a 3060 for Ethereum, however that is not the one cryptocurrency you’ll be able to mine. Additionally take into account that even the RX 6600 XT is being snapped up by miners and its profitability is hardly superb, so we don’t assume the RTX 2060 might be any much less engaging. In different phrases, we suspect it’d nonetheless be purchased up for mining.

In our opinion, releasing an RTX 2060 refresh and anticipating that to have a major impression on GPU pricing is much fetched. It’s additionally extremely unlikely that any refresh can be accessible at no matter MSRP Nvidia decides to set. They have already got the RTX 3060 at $330, AMD has the Radeon RX 6600 at $330, and there’s a powerful used marketplace for RTX 2060s. Presumably, Nvidia must set an MSRP under $330, however the present market costs for the aforementioned playing cards are all above $500 — or above $700 within the case of the 3060. Nvidia would wish to provide an enormous quantity of those playing cards to pull pricing available in the market decrease.

Potential GPU launches. What If…

With all of that stated, we don’t assume releasing a refreshed RTX 2060 is a nasty transfer, as any small change could find yourself serving to some individuals purchase a extra reasonably priced GPU. It’s additionally attainable that an RTX 2060 re-release can be extra engaging and higher performing choice than Nvidia releasing an RTX 3050 in the identical worth bracket. They may launch an RTX 3050 at any second (there is a laptop computer model already), so let’s break down a number of numbers.

We all know primarily based on our newest knowledge that the RTX 2060 is about 17 p.c slower than the RTX 3060 at 1440p, and roughly 8 p.c slower than an RX 6600. We additionally know from the cellular aspect that the RTX 3050 design utilizing GA107, and even the RTX 3050 Ti for that matter, has a minimum of 33 p.c fewer CUDA cores than an RTX 3060, and is restricted to both 4 or 8 GB configurations on account of its 128-bit reminiscence bus (with decrease reminiscence bandwidth as well).

After which in cellular configurations, the RTX 3050 finally ends up someplace between 25 and 35 p.c slower than the RTX 3060, and lots of instances it is available in slower than the RTX 2060. If it’s cheaper or simpler to provide the RTX 2060’s 445 sq. mm TU106 die on TSMC 12nm than it’s to provide the 3050’s sub-200 GA107 die on Samsung 8nm, whereas additionally performing higher, it could come out as the higher choice than transferring ahead with a desktop RTX 3050 design.

There have additionally been some rumors a couple of GeForce RTX 3090 Ti and doubtlessly different refreshes within the early components of 2022, nonetheless I don’t assume producing a brand new and tremendous costly GPU — much more costly than the RTX 3090 — will assist out an excessive amount of (a minimum of not avid gamers).

Nevertheless, a extra seemingly contender for enhancing the availability and pricing state of affairs can be AMD’s Navi 24 GPU designs, which we’ve got but to see and are at present anticipated within the early components of 2022. For the time being, AMD has solely launched right down to their Navi 23 designs, that are 237 of TSMC 7nm and at present sit as mid-range choices.

Navi 24 would theoretically be a smaller, cheaper, simpler to provide GPU with an MSRP within the $200 vary (MSRP, market would push actual road worth larger within the present local weather). We haven’t seen any new GPUs in that type of class for the reason that GTX 16 Tremendous collection and RX 5500 XT on the finish of 2019. Then, after all, we’ve got upcoming Intel Arc GPUs arriving in early 2022, which can additional add to GPU availability.

So far as GPU makers are involved, the attainable answer is to provide extra GPUs and produce new GPU choices overlaying a wider pricing vary, however this has been a sluggish course of. There may be little incentive to hurry that up so long as demand for high-end GPUs stay sky excessive because it’s in corporations’ finest curiosity to promote extra of these. Nvidia additionally has their LHR program to scale back mining profitability, although miners have been slowly chipping away at it.

Outdoors of continuous to provide GPUs at a document fee, there isn’t an actual “answer” or a fast repair to what we’re at present seeing. Corporations can’t simply go to prospects and say “okay guys, that’s sufficient, cease shopping for our GPUs effectively above MSRP, please solely purchase at a lower cost” – that’s not the way it works. Road pricing is dictated by provide and demand, and it’s solely when these issues change will we see worth motion.

This makes the query of when pricing will go down laborious to reply. Pricing already has come down from absolutely the worst interval in 2022, however as anticipated has stagnated in direction of the busy purchasing interval on the finish of the yr. Personally I discover it laborious to make any type of definitive predictions past that, as there’s too many issues occurring.

Nevertheless the doom and gloom of GPU pricing remaining excessive I feel is overblown as I’ve stated earlier than. Playing cards are already sitting on cabinets at inflated pricing, and if that continues for a lot of months, gross sales will dry up and it will pressure pricing downward. We’ve seen peaks and troughs available in the market earlier than many instances, that is actually nothing new, though distinctive circumstances this time round is extending that increase interval. Pricing for premium, excessive finish playing cards will nearly definitely blow out effectively previous $1500 with a future era although, however that doesn’t imply there received’t be playing cards accessible at costs factors overlaying your complete market.

GPU Pricing Replace

Now let’s discuss concerning the present GPU market. Cryptocurrencies stay sturdy total, with most cash together with Ethereum growing in worth over the past month. This has additionally seen a rise in issue, suggesting there’s nonetheless curiosity in including to the stockpile of GPUs getting used for mining. Profitability for many of the month was growing, till the previous couple of days the place crypto has cooled a bit and left profitability month on month flat. In different phrases, it has been a fairly typical month in 2021 for what’s the principle driver in GPU pricing.

Road costs for brand new GPUs was evaluated utilizing eBay accomplished listings up to now week, which present that after a few months of comparatively flat pricing, costs have risen in November.

That’s anticipated contemplating what’s occurred within the crypto aspect, the place scalper costs replicate crypto costs to a decrease diploma and with a little bit of a delay. Nvidia GPUs noticed a median worth hike of 6% month on month, with the most important positive factors for the RTX 3090 and RTX 3060 Ti, and the bottom for the RTX 3070 which rose by 4%.

  MSRP eBay Common Worth September eBay Common Worth October eBay Common Worth November Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance October to November
GeForce RTX 3090 $1,500 $2,863 $2,818 $3,107 107% 10%
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti $1,200 $1,880 $1,851 $1,916 60% 4%
GeForce RTX 3080 $700 $1,673 $1,534 $1,584 126% 3%
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti $600 $1,191 $1,151 $1,227 104% 7%
GeForce RTX 3070 $500 $1,180 $1,121 $1,170 134% 4%
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti $400 $866 $860 $946 136% 10%
GeForce RTX 3060 $330 $708 $692 $739 124% 7%
        Common  113% 6%

Regardless of these worth will increase, Nvidia GPUs are nonetheless promoting for a few of the lowest costs we’ve seen in 2021. Pricing is just like the extent we noticed in August and September, which is decrease than the peaks seen in 2020.

  MSRP eBay Common Worth September eBay Common Worth October eBay Common Worth November Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance October to November
Radeon 6900 XT $1,000 $1,569 $1,493 $1,585 59% 6%
Radeon 6800 XT $650 $1,411 $1,388 $1,524 134% 10%
Radeon 6800 $580 $1,309 $1,254 $1,413 144% 13%
Radeon 6700 XT $480 $881 $872 $980 104% 12%
Radeon RX 6600 XT $380 $639 $621 $689 81% 11%
Radeon RX 6600 $330   $571 $584 77% 2%
        Common 100% 9%

On the AMD aspect, pricing elevated to a higher diploma than Nvidia, which I think is because of AMD’s decrease gross sales quantity and no restrictions over mining efficiency. New AMD GPUs from the Radeon RX 6000 collection had been up 9% month on month, together with giant positive factors for merchandise just like the 6700 XT. The 6600 was spared, because it already obtained the majority of its worth inflation at launch final month.

Like with Nvidia, the pricing development for AMD GPUs has been bouncing round for the previous couple of months however hasn’t modified considerably. Pricing is decrease than what we noticed in Could and June, which was the height for AMD merchandise. Based mostly on product quantity, it doesn’t look like AMD is inserting an enormous precedence on pushing out a ton of GPUs, apart from the 6700 XT which is transferring in first rate quantities.

Used GPU Pricing

When there are will increase in model new, current-gen GPUs, there are comparable will increase within the used market. The GeForce RTX 20 collection noticed worth hikes throughout the board, with a hike of 6 p.c month on month.

The RTX 2060 Tremendous was probably the most affected and one way or the other it is promoting for $30 greater than the RTX 2070 on common. All of those GPUs are promoting for effectively above their launch MSRP.

  MSRP eBay Common Worth September eBay Common Worth October eBay Common Worth November Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance October to November
GeForce RTX 2080 Ti $1,000 $1,158 $1,102 $1,182 18% 7%
GeForce RTX 2080 Tremendous $700 $804 $786 $841 20% 7%
GeForce RTX 2080 $700 $736 $713 $772 10% 8%
GeForce RTX 2070 Tremendous $500 $720 $722 $768 54% 6%
GeForce RTX 2070 $500 $650 $676 $700 40% 3%
GeForce RTX 2060 Tremendous $400 $662 $657 $732 83% 11%
GeForce RTX 2060 $350 $514 $535 $543 55% 1%
        Common 40% 6%

  MSRP eBay Common Worth September eBay Common Worth October eBay Common Worth November Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance October to November
GeForce GTX 1660 Ti $280 $491 $476 $497 78% 4%
GeForce GTX 1660 Tremendous $230 $494 $486 $520 126% 7
GeForce GTX 1660 $220 $378 $387 $417 90% 8%
GeForce GTX 1650 Tremendous $160 $302 $299 $315 97% 6%
GeForce GTX 1650 $150 $262 $266 $263 75% -1%
        Common 93% 5%

  MSRP eBay Common Worth September eBay Common Worth October eBay Common Worth November Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance October to November
GeForce GTX 1080 Ti $700 $676 $669 $697 0% 4%
GeForce GTX 1080 $600 $459 $464 $508 -15% 10%
GeForce GTX 1070 Ti $450 $451 $453 $462 3% 2%
GeForce GTX 1070 $380 $373 $380 $416 9% 9%
GeForce GTX 1060 6GB $250 $309 $297 $326 30% 10%
GeForce GTX 1060 3GB $200 $214 $214 $235 17% 10%
        Common 7% 7%

The GeForce 16 collection is Nvidia’s present mainstream vary, though we’re wanting completely at used pricing right here. Most GPUs elevated in worth, and it’s ridiculous that playing cards just like the GTX 1660 Tremendous are promoting for greater than $500 used in the mean time. I’m hoping the supposed RTX 2060 refresh and new Navi 24 GPUs can have some impression right here, however I’m not relying on it.

The GeForce 10 collection additionally noticed worth hikes, notably for the GTX 1060 collection which is servicing the $300 market in the mean time. In the event you had been constructing a brand new PC and solely had $300 to spend on a GPU, sadly the GTX 1060 is likely one of the finest merchandise to decide on proper now, but it nonetheless prices much more than its $250 launch worth for the 6GB model.

When mining profitability goes up, so does the value for AMD’s Radeon RX 5000 collection GPUs, particularly the 5700 XT. It’s fairly wild that proper now, the 5700 XT is promoting for barely greater than $1,000, which is 2.5x its launch MSRP of $400. Collectively, these are the very best costs for Radeon RX 5000 collection GPUs since Could, which isn’t any coincidence as cryptocurrency costs are larger now than they had been again then.

AMD’s older GPUs have additionally elevated in worth. Identical to earlier than, RX 580 GPUs are usually not value shopping for for gaming in comparison with the GTX 1060. In the event you requested me a number of years in the past whether or not we’d nonetheless be speaking concerning the RX 580 and GTX 1060 on the finish of 2021, I’d say you had been dreaming, however right here we’re.

  MSRP eBay Common Worth September eBay Common Worth October eBay Common Worth November Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance October to November
Radeon 5700 XT $400 $865 $943 $1,007 152% 7%
Radeon 5700 $350 $829 $817 $920 163% 13%
Radeon 5600 XT $280 $620 $617 $663 137% 8%
Radeon 5500 XT 8GB $200 $404 $408 $442 121% 8%
        Common 143% 9%

The Ready Recreation

In order that’s the state of the GPU market in November 2021. GPU costs are up throughout the board, and plainly the upcoming “answer” to this will likely come within the type of a brand new vary of graphics playing cards in early 2022 — particularly the supposed RTX 2060 refresh, Navi 24 GPUs from AMD, and naturally, Intel’s new Arc collection. Whether or not or not these will assist to push GPU pricing down is one other dialogue completely, but additionally they will’t harm the state of affairs.

With cryptocurrency costs remaining excessive and a rise in demand on the finish of yearly on account of vacation purchasing, it was unlikely that GPU costs would go down proper earlier than Christmas. There was definitely little or no probability AIBs and distributors would decrease costs throughout this time once they’ve managed to squeeze the market all yr, too, and we would count on the development to proceed in December.

As we hit the ultimate month of 2021, what do you have to do when it comes to shopping for new {hardware}?

Properly, if you’re constructing a brand new PC from scratch or wanting to leap into PC gaming, there’s little selection however to pay ludicrous costs, though some merchandise are higher buys than others. Merchandise just like the RX 6600 are among the many higher worth buys, whereas there are a number of older used GPUs that you must positively keep away from, just like the RX 5700 XT, which is overly inflated due to its mining efficiency. The opposite two real choices are to seize a pre-built system (see our picks right here) or overlook about PC gaming and seize a console as a substitute, so long as it’s also possible to discover one available.

For these with current PCs, there may be little purpose to improve proper now. The vast majority of at the moment’s huge PC releases play advantageous on older {hardware}, and titles like Battlefield 2042, to quote one instance, would seemingly profit extra from a CPU improve than GPU improve — even the RX 580 is ok at 1080p extremely settings offered your CPU is nice sufficient.

Older GPUs are additionally advantageous in titles like Far Cry 6 even at 1440p utilizing medium settings. Positive, the expertise isn’t nearly as good because it may very well be, nevertheless it’s not like this present wave of latest recreation releases is unplayable on older {hardware}. As we’ve proven earlier than, extremely settings usually don’t make sense and enjoying on excessive and even medium visible presets is ok, which additional permits gaming on current GPUs.

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